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Oct. 08, 2024 11:00 am Eastern

Beyond Heatmaps: Quantifying Cyber Risk with Bayesian Networks

 

Marie Rice, Siena CollegeModerator: Marie Rice, Siena College

Kurt Schulzke, University of North Georgia Speaker: Kurt Schulzke, University of North Georgia

CPE Information (click here)

Beyond Heatmaps: Quantifying Cyber Risk with Bayesian Networks

Forensic Accounting Section

This webinar is sponsored by the Forensic Accounting Section
(Learn more about our Section HERE.)

The May 2021 Colonial Pipeline Corporation ransomware attack showcased stereotypical weaknesses in cybersecurity modeling, controls, and compliance monitoring. A widespread deficiency in cyber risk assessment, and risk assessment more generally, is the failure to quantify risk. Most organizations settle for so-called “heat maps” or similar technology, which attempt to assess and rank risks but suffer from analytical deficiencies that magnify downside risk by misallocating control and mitigation resources. In his book, Logic, or the Art of Thinking (1662), Antoine Arnauld wrote, “Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event.” Three centuries later, Peter L. Bernstein declared, “Without numbers, there are no odds or probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates. Without numbers, risk is wholly a matter of gut.” This presentation illustrates how risk – including cybersecurity risk -- can be predictively estimated and optimized using Bayesian networks, influence diagrams, and decision trees.

Learning Objective(s): Participants will be able to compare and contrast Bayesian networks to heatmaps and explain, at a basic level, how Bayesian networks can be used to predict and optimize cyber security risk.
CPE Information: Information Technology - 1.2CH
Program Level: Basic
Prerequisites: None
Advance Preparation: None

Delivery Method: Group Internet Based

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American Accounting Association is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website:   www.nasbaregistry.org